The Travel Business Broker Blog

We have slogged through the end of 2008 and the first half of 2009 and where are we? Thankfully there is better news on the horizon. Our office has seen and heard a positive outlook from the current owners about the future of their business. Buyer activity has slowly increased compared to this time last year.

There is a great deal to be excited about. We can see the bottom which means the only place to go from here is up. We may not shoot up like a bottle rocket, but we can see a level market that could turn into some positive growth in 2010. It may not be a “V” recovery but steady and flat means no loss and no loss is a first since late 2008. Market recovery means money flowing, money from clients wanting to travel and banks willing to make business loans to support the small business owner all this means liquidity after several quarters in a cold freeze.

How can we make the best of this situation? Imagine the possibilities that you can reap as a business owner if you take the time now and setup your operation for the recovery of the market. Companies who make strategic moves now can look at a greater return when the market comes back full force.

Americans in general think it is there right to travel. They have the right to go and relax and take their two weeks off a year. Image when the spending public is ready to release the stress of not traveling in the last year and half. Americans are going to travel and travel they will in full force. It could be a explosive 2010-2011 time for our industry.

The travel industries number can be a little deceiving earlier in the year sales were floated by advanced bookings. As of ARC’s latest report the total overall sales to date are down -11.6% or a 1.8% change compared to same month last year. The more disturbing number is the total transactions for the year when compared to the same time last year is -15.31% which is an industry change of -6.46%. Bill Poling illustrated it best in his travel weekly article the industry has just run out of steam. The industry boosted by advanced booking seems to trail just behind the curve of spending and finance trends. Not surprising considering the general opinion that we deserve to vacation and travel. But that same buffer that supported us through the first 3 quarters of 2008 will send us to the bottom in 2009, with a long climb out in 2010. With slowed spending and a loss of credit lending the travel industry will fall hard and fast in the next few months.

I see changes on the horizon that will force the travel industry to adapt and change in the next 1-2 years. The loss of unlimited or at least the opinion of unlimited credit has frozen the average homes purchasing power. Given the fact most purchasers buy on emotion and justify with logic the current economic turndown adds a dynamic that tends to slow cash flow from typical households in the US. I also think there is a trend in travel that will challenge the old paradigm of travel and vacations. Welcome to the green and philanthropic movement. Travel with a mind to environment and philanthropy. Smaller niche or agencies specializing in these areas stand to make some good advances in the coming markets. Placing these agencies in the driver’s seat when it comes to options to buy or sell when the time is right. Larger agencies looking to step into the arena combined with the current buyers market could forecast a great opportunity to combine strengths with appropriate mergers and intelligent acquisitions. Those who change first with an eye on the horizon stand to weather the storm and ride the wave of growth that follows the rough seas of 2009 into a promising outlook of 2010.